NFL Week 11 is upon us, and we’re back with our best bets for this weekend.

Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

It’s the Baker Mayfield special: a road underdog coming off a loss. This is the ultimate spot for the Buccaneers – they’ve covered in seven straight following a loss and 17 of their last 23 on the road.

The Bills, meanwhile, are a banged-up bunch. The defense has been shredded by injuries, the offense is streaky, and Josh Allen’s been pressing like a quarterback trying to do too much with too little. Tampa’s defensive front can slow down James Cook and force Allen into those turnover-prone moments that flip a spread in seconds.

Baker’s already stirring the pot in the pressers – talking cold weather, hand size, and having fun with it. You love to see it. The Bucs don’t need style points, just some grit and a cover. Lock in the +5.5 (or better if you caught it early). Live dog alert in Buffalo.

Falcons -3.5 vs Panthers

Atlanta’s season is hanging by a thread, and this is the week to buy in. The Falcons got embarrassed by Carolina earlier this year, but revenge spots like this tend to cash. At home, fighting for your playoff life, and with a desperate head coach who knows this is a must-win – the setup screams bounce-back.

Carolina’s offense is still broken. The passing game has no rhythm, the red-zone work is nonexistent, and they’ve scored more than 20 points just once over their last four games. Bijan Robinson should be fed early and often, and as long as Raheem Morris keeps it simple, the Falcons should grind out a convincing win.

Dolphins -2.5 vs Commanders (Madrid Game)

The Commanders are toast: overcooked, under-seasoned, and falling apart. Their defense is a skeleton crew, their secondary’s a mash unit, and even their best linemen are suspended or hurt. Miami should absolutely roll in this neutral-site matchup in Madrid.

Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins feast on bad teams. Always have – they’re 14-9 ATS as favorites since 2023. Expect a fast start, a fireworks show from Tua and Waddle, and a comfortable Miami cover. Start your Sunday with an easy one.

Giants +7.5 vs Packers (a.k.a. The Dead Coach Bounce Special)

The post-firing surge is real – and the Giants are next in line. With Jameis Winston stepping in and offensive guru Mike Kafka calling plays, this group suddenly has life. Winston will make you laugh, cry, and cash, sometimes all in the same quarter.

Green Bay’s offense, on the other hand, is flatlining. Jordan Love’s looked lost without Tucker Kraft, and Matt LaFleur’s play-calling has been as uninspiring as it gets. Even if the Packers jump ahead, Winston should be able to keep the backdoor open. Giants cover +7.5, and don’t be shocked if they flirt with an outright upset.

Chiefs at Broncos: Under 44.5

This AFC West matchup never ends up in a shootout. The last four totals between these two have all gone under, and both teams are among the league’s best under bets in 2025.

Andy Reid off a bye is money straight-up, but just average against the spread. The real value lies in the total: his post-bye games have hit the under three straight years. Expect a chess match more than a track meet. Both defenses are playing sharp, both QBs face tough secondaries, and red-zone stalls will define the night. Chiefs win ugly, 23-17.

Titans Team Total Under 15.5 vs Texans

Tennessee’s offense is a lost cause. Without consistent quarterback play and a line that leaks like a sieve, moving the ball against this Houston defense feels impossible.

The Texans have quietly become elite against the run and limit even above-average offenses to modest totals. Against a Titans unit averaging under 16 points per game, the under feels almost too easy. Expect plenty of punts and field goals – just how we like it.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Joe Pisapia’s Pick: Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

The “Mayfield Magic” spot. Road dog, chip on the shoulder, fading a fading favorite. Lock it in before the number disappears.

Andrew Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys -3.5 at Raiders

Rest advantage, roster advantage, and revenge motivation. Dallas has covered 70% of games with extra rest since 2023, while the Raiders have lost seven straight as home underdogs.

Upset Special: Buccaneers (+235 ML) at Bills

Tampa’s defense matches up perfectly, and Allen’s turnovers make them live the whole way. Sprinkle the moneyline – this one could get loud in Buffalo.

Parlay of the Week (+605):

• Titans Team Total Under 15.5 (-113)
• Buccaneers +5.5 (-108)
• Giants +7.5 (-110)

Three bets, one theme: defense travels, dogs bark, and coaching chaos creates covers.

Referenced odds and lines subject to change.

NFL Week 10 is here, and the BettingPros squad is back with another round of best bets.

 

Panthers -5.5 vs Saints

Betting against rookie quarterbacks on the road remains one of the most profitable angles in football, and this week’s victim is Tyler Shough. Carolina hosts New Orleans with momentum and matchup edges on both sides of the ball.

The Saints’ offense is broken: banged-up line, traded some weapons, and a rookie QB making back-to-back road starts. That’s a disaster setup against a Panthers defense ranking sixth in red-zone efficiency. Carolina, meanwhile, has quietly gone 3-1 ATS at home and is pounding the ball behind Rico Dowdle and a surging ground game.

The Saints have lost 13 straight as underdogs. The Panthers keep that streak alive and keep pounding in Charlotte.

Bears Team Total Over 25.5 vs Giants

Chicago’s offense at home has been electric, averaging 27 points per game and clearing 24+ in every appearance at Soldier Field this season. Caleb Williams has thrived in front of the home crowd, and his supporting cast is finally clicking.

The Giants’ defense has allowed over 31 points per game on the road, and their secondary remains one of the most banged-up units in football. Even with an improving pass rush, they’ve been shredded by explosive plays and poor tackling on the back end.

Whether it’s Monangai pounding inside or Swift flashing outside, the Bears’ offense should roll again. Don’t overthink it – trust the trend and back the home fireworks.

Patriots +3 at Buccaneers

Road dogs travel well, and this version of New England fits that mold. The Patriots have covered five straight on the road and continue to grind games into their preferred low-possession style.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been unreliable as a home favorite: just 5-8 ATS in that spot since 2023. The Bucs’ offense is depleted with Mike Evans out and Chris Godwin questionable, leaving Baker Mayfield short on weapons. Meanwhile, Christian Gonzalez’s return gives the Patriots a chance to slow down the Bucs’ lone deep threat in Egbuka.

Take the points, take the pedigree, and take the Pats to keep it within a field goal – or better.

Rams at 49ers: Under 49.5

Unders dominate in this rivalry, and it’s no mystery why. Both teams rank top-10 in red-zone defense, and nine of their last twelve meetings have finished below the total.

The Rams’ defense leads the league in red-zone scoring prevention, while San Francisco – despite injuries – remains fundamentally sound. The 49ers’ home games against NFC West opponents have all stayed under, and the earlier season matchup between these two only broke 49 points after overtime.

Expect a measured, field-goal-heavy affair in a divisional war that rarely turns into a shootout.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Now it’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week:

Cardinals at Seahawks: Under 45.5

The “Lasso Lag” strikes again. Teams following a game against Dallas typically struggle to move the ball.

Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-145)

Schultz has topped this mark in five of his last eight games, and Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most catches to tight ends over the past month. Reliable, high-floor volume play.

Upset Special: Eagles (+116 ML) at Packers

Philadelphia has won both meetings against Green Bay in the Jordan Love era and just reloaded its secondary with fresh reinforcements. Green Bay’s home mystique fades as the Birds fly into Lambeau and flip the script.

Parlay of the Week (+316):

• Eagles ML (+116)
• Panthers -5.5 (-108)

Two legs. Two mismatched lines. One plus-money parlay that feels like it should be chalk.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

The NFL’s Week 9 slate is packed with intrigue, and the BettingPros crew dug into every edge, trend, and trap across the board. From Bijan’s bounce-back opportunity to Buffalo’s offensive surge and another Tomlin underdog spot, the panel has your sharpest angles covered.

Furman: Falcons +5.5 at Patriots

If betting ugly is an art, Terrell Furman is Picasso. He’s diving straight back into the “Close Your Eyes Special” this week with Atlanta +5.5 at New England.

The Falcons’ defense remains quietly solid, and this matchup plays right into Bijan Robinson’s hands. New England ranks 25th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, a soft spot that Robinson should exploit early and often. With Michael Penix expected back under center, Atlanta can open things up through the air and keep this game tighter than the odds suggest.

It won’t be pretty, but that’s the point. The Patriots are overvalued off a morale-boosting win, while Atlanta’s defense and versatile backfield can grind out drives. Don’t blink, don’t flinch – just back the birds and hold your breath.

Erickson: Seahawks -3 at Commanders

Nine straight road wins. Ten in a row as road favorites. That’s all you really need to know about Seattle’s travel resume.

Erickson’s laying -3 with the Seahawks and he’s confident that their pass rush will overwhelm a Washington team limping through injuries. The Commanders are down Terry McLaurin, their left tackle is dinged up, and Jayden Daniels may still not be 100%.

Rested off a bye, Seattle checks every box: superior trenches, coaching edge, and historical dominance on the road.

Furman: Steelers +3 vs Colts

You can set your watch to it: Mike Tomlin as an underdog is the trend that refuses to die.

Pittsburgh stumbled last week, but Furman’s betting on the bounce-back. The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 as dogs, and the home crowd will be deafening after Green Bay fans took over their stadium.

The Colts’ offense has been humming, but Tomlin’s teams don’t stay down for long. Expect Pittsburgh’s defense to rise up, ugly this game up, and keep it within a field goal – or even steal it late.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Without further ado, here are our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week:

Joe Pisapia: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 45.5 Rushing Yards

Seattle’s front has allowed the fewest rushing yards in football. Washington’s offense is stuck in neutral, and game script should force them to the air early. Easy under.

Terrell Furman: Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

After last week’s miss, Bijan gets his redemption arc. The Patriots are elite against the run but liabilities in coverage, and Atlanta’s game plan flows through its star back. Don’t stop there – Terrell’s eyeing alt lines at 50 (+160), 65 (+350), and 100 (+1000). Swing for the fences.

Andrew Erickson: Bills Team Total Over 25.5 Points

Buffalo at home is a wagon. Josh Allen torches KC’s secondary again in a must-watch AFC shootout. Fifteen of their last 20 full games have topped 30 points – Erickson says make it sixteen.

Upset Special: Raiders (+134 ML vs Jaguars)

Don’t bury Vegas just yet. Brock Bowers returns this week and adds a new dimension to this offense. Jacksonville’s banged-up and traveling cross-country: a perfect recipe for a home dog surprise in Sin City.

Pisapia’s Parlay of the Week: (+485)

• Chargers -9.5 vs Titans
• Colts ML (-158)
• Jacorei Croskey-Merritt Under 45.5 Rush Yards

Three legs, one tasty ticket. Let’s ride.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

Week 8 of the NFL season brings plenty of storylines, but for us, it’s all about finding the sharpest angles in the betting market. The Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week segment gave us a chance to dig deep into the matchups, and a few plays stood out across the board — from Baker Mayfield’s redemption arc to Bijan Robinson’s rushing potential and a celebration of National Tight End Day.

Erickson: Betting on Baker and the Buccaneers

Tampa Bay burned plenty of bettors last week, but that’s exactly why we’re buying back in. The Buccaneers at -4 are our favorite side this week against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield’s MVP talk may have cooled after an ugly outing against Detroit, but that just means there’s value on the table. Historically, Mayfield and the Bucs thrive in bounce-back spots — they’ve covered in seven of their last nine road games and are an impressive 12-4 against the spread following a loss.

We expect a chippy divisional matchup — Baker has no love lost for the Saints — and while we’ll miss the classic Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore showdown, there’s still plenty of firepower to believe in Tampa Bay. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been convincing, and with their 2-10 against the spread record as an underdog, they’re a team to fade. This is the “buy the dip” moment for Baker and the Bucs.

Furman: Tight End Day: Dalton Kincaid to Shine

Every year, National Tight End Day offers a reason to celebrate one of football’s most underappreciated positions — and this week, we’re doing just that with Dalton Kincaid at +210 to score an anytime touchdown. The Bills’ rookie has become more integrated into Josh Allen’s offense each week, and he draws the dream matchup: Carolina, the NFL’s worst defense by DVOA against tight ends.

The Panthers have given up production to every tight end they’ve faced, and with Buffalo likely moving the ball at will, Kincaid should have his chances in the red zone. Expect Allen to look for him early and often as the Bills’ offense gets rolling in a get-right spot. Tight end touchdowns and celebration dances? We’re in.

Pisapia: Bijan Going Over

Few players in football are as electric with the ball in their hands as Bijan Robinson, and he’s facing a Miami Dolphins defense that’s leaking yardage at a historic rate. The Dolphins have allowed 1,115 rushing yards, the most in the NFL — no other team has even cracked 1,000. With that in mind, we’re hammering Bijan’s rushing yards over 88.5, even if it feels like a lofty total.

Add in an anytime touchdown and you’ve got a juicy combo that pushes the payout to +135. The matchup, the talent, and the workload all align for Bijan to break out in a big way against a defense that’s struggled to contain dynamic runners all season.

Upset Alert: Backing the 49ers

For our Upset Special of the Week, we’re backing the San Francisco 49ers at +1.5. This pick goes against the grain — even against our buddy Terrell’s earlier lean — but it’s one we’re confident in. Houston’s defense deserves credit, but their offense remains inconsistent, and we’ll side with the team that boasts the best player on the field: Christian McCaffrey.

With George Kittle getting healthier and the Niners’ defense hungry to rebound, we’re betting that San Francisco doesn’t just cover — they win outright.

The Parlay: Chasing Plus Money

To cap off the week, we’re stringing together a three-leg parlay that captures our favorite plays:

• 49ers +1.5
• Bijan Robinson over 88.5 rushing yards
• Colts team total over 30.5 points

That trio combines for a tasty +556 payout. The Colts’ offense continues to impress, and with Tennessee’s defense reeling, we see another big outing coming.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.