It’s time for the Hard Rock Bet Play of the Day, and we’re heading back to one of my favorite angles — a familiar coach, a motivated team, and a first-half total that feels just a little too light.

I’m 3-1 so far with the Hard Rock Bet plays, and I’m returning to the spot where it all began: the Creighton Bluejays’ first-half team total.

A Familiar Face on the Opposite Sideline

Creighton faces North Dakota, a college basketball matchup with a little built-in history. Head coach Greg McDermott started his career coaching at North Dakota (then the Fighting Sioux, now the Fighting Hawks), so there’s some natural familiarity and pride involved here.

McDermott’s teams have always been built to shoot, and that’s what makes this game intriguing. Through the early part of the season, the Jays have struggled to find rhythm from beyond the arc, and they’ve heard about it — loudly. Heading into a neutral-site run against Baylor and Iowa State in Las Vegas, this feels like the night to get right.

• The Bet: Creighton Bluejays 1H Team Total Over 45.5 (-104)

Creighton’s full-game team total sits around 91.5 points, but that’s too high in what should become a one-sided game. Instead, the value sits in the first-half number: 45.5 points.

Yes, the Jays are averaging just 41 first-half points so far, and the raw numbers don’t necessarily scream “over.” But the context matters. Against a North Dakota defense they should completely outclass, I’m expecting Creighton to come out focused and shooting confidently.

They’ve been frustrated by poor three-point shooting early in the year, but this offense is designed to live behind the arc — and open looks should be plentiful tonight.

KenPom projects roughly 90 points overall for Creighton, and if they’re going to clear that, the surge likely starts early. I’m betting they find their groove quickly.

The Rest of Today’s Card

• CMU vs. KSU Over 49 (1.1 units) – Expecting both teams to move the ball effectively and find scoring consistency.
• Bruins vs. Ducks 1st Period Over 1.5 (-135) – Fast pace early and plenty of offensive talent on both sides.
• UConn 1H -3.5 vs. Arizona – I like first half the spread here. A heavyweight non-conference battle; the Huskies’ efficiency gives them an edge before halftime.

Follow me on X @SportsTalkMatt, and catch The Daily Juice every morning wherever you get your podcasts.

NFL Week 11 is upon us, and we’re back with our best bets for this weekend.

Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

It’s the Baker Mayfield special: a road underdog coming off a loss. This is the ultimate spot for the Buccaneers – they’ve covered in seven straight following a loss and 17 of their last 23 on the road.

The Bills, meanwhile, are a banged-up bunch. The defense has been shredded by injuries, the offense is streaky, and Josh Allen’s been pressing like a quarterback trying to do too much with too little. Tampa’s defensive front can slow down James Cook and force Allen into those turnover-prone moments that flip a spread in seconds.

Baker’s already stirring the pot in the pressers – talking cold weather, hand size, and having fun with it. You love to see it. The Bucs don’t need style points, just some grit and a cover. Lock in the +5.5 (or better if you caught it early). Live dog alert in Buffalo.

Falcons -3.5 vs Panthers

Atlanta’s season is hanging by a thread, and this is the week to buy in. The Falcons got embarrassed by Carolina earlier this year, but revenge spots like this tend to cash. At home, fighting for your playoff life, and with a desperate head coach who knows this is a must-win – the setup screams bounce-back.

Carolina’s offense is still broken. The passing game has no rhythm, the red-zone work is nonexistent, and they’ve scored more than 20 points just once over their last four games. Bijan Robinson should be fed early and often, and as long as Raheem Morris keeps it simple, the Falcons should grind out a convincing win.

Dolphins -2.5 vs Commanders (Madrid Game)

The Commanders are toast: overcooked, under-seasoned, and falling apart. Their defense is a skeleton crew, their secondary’s a mash unit, and even their best linemen are suspended or hurt. Miami should absolutely roll in this neutral-site matchup in Madrid.

Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins feast on bad teams. Always have – they’re 14-9 ATS as favorites since 2023. Expect a fast start, a fireworks show from Tua and Waddle, and a comfortable Miami cover. Start your Sunday with an easy one.

Giants +7.5 vs Packers (a.k.a. The Dead Coach Bounce Special)

The post-firing surge is real – and the Giants are next in line. With Jameis Winston stepping in and offensive guru Mike Kafka calling plays, this group suddenly has life. Winston will make you laugh, cry, and cash, sometimes all in the same quarter.

Green Bay’s offense, on the other hand, is flatlining. Jordan Love’s looked lost without Tucker Kraft, and Matt LaFleur’s play-calling has been as uninspiring as it gets. Even if the Packers jump ahead, Winston should be able to keep the backdoor open. Giants cover +7.5, and don’t be shocked if they flirt with an outright upset.

Chiefs at Broncos: Under 44.5

This AFC West matchup never ends up in a shootout. The last four totals between these two have all gone under, and both teams are among the league’s best under bets in 2025.

Andy Reid off a bye is money straight-up, but just average against the spread. The real value lies in the total: his post-bye games have hit the under three straight years. Expect a chess match more than a track meet. Both defenses are playing sharp, both QBs face tough secondaries, and red-zone stalls will define the night. Chiefs win ugly, 23-17.

Titans Team Total Under 15.5 vs Texans

Tennessee’s offense is a lost cause. Without consistent quarterback play and a line that leaks like a sieve, moving the ball against this Houston defense feels impossible.

The Texans have quietly become elite against the run and limit even above-average offenses to modest totals. Against a Titans unit averaging under 16 points per game, the under feels almost too easy. Expect plenty of punts and field goals – just how we like it.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Joe Pisapia’s Pick: Buccaneers +5.5 at Bills

The “Mayfield Magic” spot. Road dog, chip on the shoulder, fading a fading favorite. Lock it in before the number disappears.

Andrew Erickson’s Pick: Cowboys -3.5 at Raiders

Rest advantage, roster advantage, and revenge motivation. Dallas has covered 70% of games with extra rest since 2023, while the Raiders have lost seven straight as home underdogs.

Upset Special: Buccaneers (+235 ML) at Bills

Tampa’s defense matches up perfectly, and Allen’s turnovers make them live the whole way. Sprinkle the moneyline – this one could get loud in Buffalo.

Parlay of the Week (+605):

• Titans Team Total Under 15.5 (-113)
• Buccaneers +5.5 (-108)
• Giants +7.5 (-110)

Three bets, one theme: defense travels, dogs bark, and coaching chaos creates covers.

Referenced odds and lines subject to change.

After a few swings and misses lately, it’s time to settle in and tighten things up. No wild parlays, no chasing long shots – just clear reads and disciplined plays.

Tonight, we’ve got four spots where the numbers feel a touch too high – one hockey 1st Period total, two NBA prop bets and one sleepy college football matchup that might struggle to reach the mid-40s. Let’s dig in.

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Devils vs. Blackhawks 1st Period Under 1.5 Goals (+100)

We open the card with a trip to the ice, where both Chicago and New Jersey have quietly been first-period under machines. Neither team has shown much offensive rhythm out of the gate, and both goaltenders – whether it’s the starters or the backups – have been steady enough to keep things calm early.

Nationally televised games can sometimes bring early nerves and tight play, and that works perfectly for this angle. As long as we avoid a pair of fluky redirects or power-play goals, this one has all the makings of a 1-0 or 0-0 first intermission.

Grayson Allen Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

It’s easy to get swept up in recency bias. Allen just dropped the game of his life – a barrage of threes, a career-high scoring night, and the kind of stat line that grabs everyone’s attention. But that’s precisely when the fade becomes most valuable.

Before that eruption, his totals for points and boards had been living in the high teens, rarely touching 21. His efficiency spike came on unsustainable shooting splits, and now he draws a defense far more capable of running him off the arc.

The projection models have this number shaded high by a few points, and when a player comes off a career night, the books almost always dare you to bet against the regression. I’ll take that dare.

Duncan Robinson Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)

Robinson’s resurgence as a confident shooter has been fun to watch, but this line is inflated beyond what his role typically provides. He’s hit this mark just once in his last five outings, and that came against a soft perimeter defense that let him walk into clean looks.

Tonight’s opponent brings far more length and switch-ability – not ideal for a player so dependent on rhythm and screens. Detroit’s rotation has also condensed with a few guys returning, and Robinson’s minutes could dip slightly if the game stays competitive.

This is a high-efficiency scorer who doesn’t get to the line or crash the glass. That combination makes unders like this worth revisiting any time he’s priced near 18 combined.

Northern Illinois vs UMass Under 43.5 Total Points (-110)

If you’re into offensive fireworks, this one isn’t for you. These two offenses have spent the season in neutral – sputtering drives, long third downs, and plenty of punts. UMass barely cracks double digits per game, and Northern Illinois isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either.

The weather’s turning colder in Amherst, the stands will be half-empty, and both teams seem content to run clock instead of tempo. Unless we get a handful of short fields from turnovers, it’s hard to see either side pushing this total north of 40.

Expect a grind, a lot of field position battles, and maybe a touchdown or two that feels like pulling teeth.

Final Thoughts

When the betting board feels unpredictable, unders can be a safe harbor. Shots cool off, games slow down, and the scoreboard doesn’t always live up to expectations.

Four unders. Four opportunities to win by letting the clock work in our favor.

Let’s cash a quiet night.

NFL Week 10 is here, and the BettingPros squad is back with another round of best bets.

 

Panthers -5.5 vs Saints

Betting against rookie quarterbacks on the road remains one of the most profitable angles in football, and this week’s victim is Tyler Shough. Carolina hosts New Orleans with momentum and matchup edges on both sides of the ball.

The Saints’ offense is broken: banged-up line, traded some weapons, and a rookie QB making back-to-back road starts. That’s a disaster setup against a Panthers defense ranking sixth in red-zone efficiency. Carolina, meanwhile, has quietly gone 3-1 ATS at home and is pounding the ball behind Rico Dowdle and a surging ground game.

The Saints have lost 13 straight as underdogs. The Panthers keep that streak alive and keep pounding in Charlotte.

Bears Team Total Over 25.5 vs Giants

Chicago’s offense at home has been electric, averaging 27 points per game and clearing 24+ in every appearance at Soldier Field this season. Caleb Williams has thrived in front of the home crowd, and his supporting cast is finally clicking.

The Giants’ defense has allowed over 31 points per game on the road, and their secondary remains one of the most banged-up units in football. Even with an improving pass rush, they’ve been shredded by explosive plays and poor tackling on the back end.

Whether it’s Monangai pounding inside or Swift flashing outside, the Bears’ offense should roll again. Don’t overthink it – trust the trend and back the home fireworks.

Patriots +3 at Buccaneers

Road dogs travel well, and this version of New England fits that mold. The Patriots have covered five straight on the road and continue to grind games into their preferred low-possession style.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has been unreliable as a home favorite: just 5-8 ATS in that spot since 2023. The Bucs’ offense is depleted with Mike Evans out and Chris Godwin questionable, leaving Baker Mayfield short on weapons. Meanwhile, Christian Gonzalez’s return gives the Patriots a chance to slow down the Bucs’ lone deep threat in Egbuka.

Take the points, take the pedigree, and take the Pats to keep it within a field goal – or better.

Rams at 49ers: Under 49.5

Unders dominate in this rivalry, and it’s no mystery why. Both teams rank top-10 in red-zone defense, and nine of their last twelve meetings have finished below the total.

The Rams’ defense leads the league in red-zone scoring prevention, while San Francisco – despite injuries – remains fundamentally sound. The 49ers’ home games against NFC West opponents have all stayed under, and the earlier season matchup between these two only broke 49 points after overtime.

Expect a measured, field-goal-heavy affair in a divisional war that rarely turns into a shootout.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Now it’s time for our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week:

Cardinals at Seahawks: Under 45.5

The “Lasso Lag” strikes again. Teams following a game against Dallas typically struggle to move the ball.

Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-145)

Schultz has topped this mark in five of his last eight games, and Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-most catches to tight ends over the past month. Reliable, high-floor volume play.

Upset Special: Eagles (+116 ML) at Packers

Philadelphia has won both meetings against Green Bay in the Jordan Love era and just reloaded its secondary with fresh reinforcements. Green Bay’s home mystique fades as the Birds fly into Lambeau and flip the script.

Parlay of the Week (+316):

• Eagles ML (+116)
• Panthers -5.5 (-108)

Two legs. Two mismatched lines. One plus-money parlay that feels like it should be chalk.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

We’re early in the college basketball season, and if we’re being honest, we’re flying blind right now. These first few games are always tough — rosters are full of new recruits and transfers, and last year’s stats don’t tell the whole story anymore. So yeah, opening up slow doesn’t exactly feel great, but I’m not losing sleep over it. This time of year is about recalibrating, reading the early returns, and looking for value in the chaos.

Tonight, I think I’ve found a good spot to do just that — and it comes in Omaha, with the Creighton Bluejays.

Betting the Jays: First-Half Over vs. South Dakota

Creighton opens their home slate in front of what’s sure to be a sellout crowd, and they’ve cracked the Top 25 for a reason. South Dakota’s coming to town, and I expect them to run. They’re not the kind of team that slows it down or turns the ball over much — they want to push pace and score in bunches.

On the flip side, the Jays are built for tempo. They’ve got a massive size and athleticism advantage inside, and when the threes are falling, they can put up points in a hurry. I don’t want to mess with a point spread, laying 16 in the first half or 28.5 for the game — that’s too much variance this early in the season. Instead, I’m keeping it simple with a first half over/under:

• Creighton and South Dakota, First Half Over 79.5 (-120) for 1.2 units.

Let’s get a 50–30 type first half, and I think Creighton’s more than capable of doing their part if they’re shooting well. That’s the Hard Rock Bet of the Day.

Wednesday’s Card: One Future and Three Plays

It’s been a rough week, but I’m looking to turn it around with three plays tonight and a future on the board:

1. Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at +1400 (1 unit)
2. Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) under 27.5 points + assists (-110)
3. Ball State -1.5 vs. Kent State (1.1 units)

• Play of the Day: Creighton/South Dakota First Half Over 79.5 (-120, 1.2 units)

Let’s see if we can break the cold streak and roll into Thursday Night Football with a little momentum — Raiders and Broncos on deck.

You can follow me across all socials @SportsTalkMatt, and of course, catch The Daily Juice Podcast every morning wherever you get your podcasts.

What’s up, everybody – it’s Terrell Furman Jr., back with another edition of Fast Break Bets, powered by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Let’s get into it. I got three plays for you today – all sharp, all researched, and all ready to sweep the board. Let’s make some money.

Lonzo Ball Over 4.5 Assists (-114)

I’m starting in Cleveland with Lonzo Ball – and I love this prop. Lonzo’s been automatic early this season. Even on a minutes restriction (about 23-24 per game), he’s gone over 4.5 assists in all four games and is averaging six per night.

He’s facing a Toronto team that plays fast and guards nobody. The Raptors are bottom five in opponent points in the paint and missing Jakob Poeltl, leaving their interior wide open. That’s perfect for a passer like Lonzo – push the pace, find cutters, rack up easy dimes.

At -114, this number’s too low. Lonzo’s IQ and playmaking are shining in this system. Expect him to land 5-6 assists with ease.

Evan Mobley Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (Hard Rock Bet of the Day)

You know we had to have a Hard Rock Bet of the Day, and this one’s all about Evan Mobley.

Mobley’s in a prime spot tonight – both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are questionable, which could leave Mobley as the Cavs’ go-to guy. When Mitchell’s out, Mobley steps up – he’s cleared this combo line in 7 of his last 10 games without him.

Toronto’s defense down low is a mess. They’re undersized, allow the fifth-most points in the paint, and give up plenty of second-chance looks. Mobley’s length and touch inside are going to shine.

Even if Allen or Mitchell play, I still like it. If both sit? Smash the over. Mobley Over 30.5 P+R – that’s the Hard Rock Bet special.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points

All right, time for a get-right spot. After that brutal 2-for-12 night for KAT versus the Bucks, this is the bounce-back we’ve been waiting for.

Chicago’s defense against centers is atrocious. They’re dead last in the NBA, giving up nearly 30 points per game to the position. Everybody’s been torching them – Sabonis, Duren, even Isaiah Stewart dropped 20. KAT’s skill set is built for this matchup. He can pull Vucevic out of the paint, attack off the dribble, or score inside against a soft interior.

He’s also cleared this number in his last three against Chicago: 46, 44, and 32. It’s a perfect setup. KAT over 21.5 points, and don’t be shocked if he flirts with 30+.

Let’s Sweep Friday

Here’s the recap:

• Lonzo Ball – Over 4.5 Assists (-114)
• Evan Mobley – Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (Hard Rock Bet of the Day)
• Karl-Anthony Towns – Over 21.5 Points

Three plays, three overs, and one mission: get back in the win column and cash all tickets.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

The NFL’s Week 9 slate is packed with intrigue, and the BettingPros crew dug into every edge, trend, and trap across the board. From Bijan’s bounce-back opportunity to Buffalo’s offensive surge and another Tomlin underdog spot, the panel has your sharpest angles covered.

Furman: Falcons +5.5 at Patriots

If betting ugly is an art, Terrell Furman is Picasso. He’s diving straight back into the “Close Your Eyes Special” this week with Atlanta +5.5 at New England.

The Falcons’ defense remains quietly solid, and this matchup plays right into Bijan Robinson’s hands. New England ranks 25th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, a soft spot that Robinson should exploit early and often. With Michael Penix expected back under center, Atlanta can open things up through the air and keep this game tighter than the odds suggest.

It won’t be pretty, but that’s the point. The Patriots are overvalued off a morale-boosting win, while Atlanta’s defense and versatile backfield can grind out drives. Don’t blink, don’t flinch – just back the birds and hold your breath.

Erickson: Seahawks -3 at Commanders

Nine straight road wins. Ten in a row as road favorites. That’s all you really need to know about Seattle’s travel resume.

Erickson’s laying -3 with the Seahawks and he’s confident that their pass rush will overwhelm a Washington team limping through injuries. The Commanders are down Terry McLaurin, their left tackle is dinged up, and Jayden Daniels may still not be 100%.

Rested off a bye, Seattle checks every box: superior trenches, coaching edge, and historical dominance on the road.

Furman: Steelers +3 vs Colts

You can set your watch to it: Mike Tomlin as an underdog is the trend that refuses to die.

Pittsburgh stumbled last week, but Furman’s betting on the bounce-back. The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 as dogs, and the home crowd will be deafening after Green Bay fans took over their stadium.

The Colts’ offense has been humming, but Tomlin’s teams don’t stay down for long. Expect Pittsburgh’s defense to rise up, ugly this game up, and keep it within a field goal – or even steal it late.

Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week

Without further ado, here are our Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week:

Joe Pisapia: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 45.5 Rushing Yards

Seattle’s front has allowed the fewest rushing yards in football. Washington’s offense is stuck in neutral, and game script should force them to the air early. Easy under.

Terrell Furman: Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

After last week’s miss, Bijan gets his redemption arc. The Patriots are elite against the run but liabilities in coverage, and Atlanta’s game plan flows through its star back. Don’t stop there – Terrell’s eyeing alt lines at 50 (+160), 65 (+350), and 100 (+1000). Swing for the fences.

Andrew Erickson: Bills Team Total Over 25.5 Points

Buffalo at home is a wagon. Josh Allen torches KC’s secondary again in a must-watch AFC shootout. Fifteen of their last 20 full games have topped 30 points – Erickson says make it sixteen.

Upset Special: Raiders (+134 ML vs Jaguars)

Don’t bury Vegas just yet. Brock Bowers returns this week and adds a new dimension to this offense. Jacksonville’s banged-up and traveling cross-country: a perfect recipe for a home dog surprise in Sin City.

Pisapia’s Parlay of the Week: (+485)

• Chargers -9.5 vs Titans
• Colts ML (-158)
• Jacorei Croskey-Merritt Under 45.5 Rush Yards

Three legs, one tasty ticket. Let’s ride.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

What’s going on, everybody? Last week, we landed right around .500 – but that means it’s time to bounce back strong. I’ve got a mix of spreads, totals, and a Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week I absolutely love. Let’s dive right into my favorite college football bets for Week 9.

Ole Miss (+5.5) at Oklahoma

The more I look at this matchup, the more I like Ole Miss catching points. Oklahoma’s defense has been solid, no doubt, but they haven’t faced an offense of this caliber yet. The Rebels rank 16th in scoring nationally, and Lane Kiffin’s group can put up points on anyone. Give me Ole Miss plus the points on the road.

BYU (+2.5) at Iowa State

This is my “fade-the-public” pick of the week. Everyone’s expecting a letdown from BYU after their emotional win over Utah, but I don’t see it. The Cougars are 7-0 and rolling, while Iowa State has been inconsistent and soft against the run – ranking 133rd out of 136 teams.

BYU loves to pound the rock, running the ball on 60 percent of its snaps. If Iowa State’s top interior lineman “Big Citrus” Dom Orange misses time, that physical run game is going to eat them alive. I think BYU not only covers but wins this one outright. Sprinkle a little on that moneyline if you’re feeling brave.

South Carolina Team Total Under 16.5

I’m doubling down on this one from last week. South Carolina’s offense is broken – plain and simple. The offensive line can’t protect LaNorris Sellers, and he’s forced to do everything himself. Against Oklahoma, their lone touchdown drive was gift-wrapped after a shanked punt.

Now they face Alabama, whose pass rush has been improving each week. Even though the Tide hasn’t been elite at getting sacks this season, they’re generating more pressure and that spells big trouble for an already-overwhelmed Gamecock front. Until South Carolina proves otherwise, the under 16.5 is an automatic play.

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs Baylor and Over 66.5

We’re going double up here – taking both the Bearcats -3.5 and the over 66.5. Both Cincinnati and Baylor play at lightning speed, each ranking inside the top 25 in pace. Baylor is 4th in the nation in offensive tempo, while Cincinnati sits 23rd.

That kind of pace means possessions galore and lots of scoring chances. Neither defense has shown much resistance lately, and with weather looking clear in this one, I expect fireworks. Cincy is the more complete team, so we’ll lay the 3.5 and hammer the over.

Auburn at Arkansas Over 56.5

Weather permitting, this is one of my favorite overs of the week. Arkansas can’t stop anyone, and Auburn’s offense is due for a breakout performance. Sam Pittman is gone, and interim-era games tend to open up – Bobby Petrino knows how to scheme up points.

Jackson Arnold hasn’t been consistent, but against this Razorbacks D, he won’t have to be perfect. If Saturday morning’s forecast calls for low wind and manageable rain, I’m pulling the trigger on the over 56.5.

Toledo at Washington State Under 46.5

We’re heading in the other direction in Pullman. There’s a 100% chance of rain and sustained winds near 17 mph. That kind of weather crushes passing efficiency, kicking, and special teams – basically everything that leads to points.

Toledo is a good MAC squad, but traveling across the country into this storm against a tough Washington State defense is a recipe for a low-scoring game. The under 46.5 is the play here.

Tennessee Team Total Over 31.5 at Kentucky

Kentucky looked great defensively last week, but I think that’s a mirage. Tennessee’s offense under Joey Aguilar has been balanced, efficient, and resilient. Mark Stoops’ Wildcats tend to play in waves – one week they’re locked in, the next they look lifeless.

Coming off that heartbreaking overtime loss to Texas, I expect a flat effort from Kentucky. The Vols have too many weapons to be held under 31.5 points. Expect a bounce-back offensive showcase.

Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 at South Carolina

Here it is, my Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 on the road at South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks will bring their best effort. When you play Alabama, you always do. But this version of South Carolina just isn’t equipped to compete for four quarters. Their offensive line is crumbling, and once the Tide jump out to a two-score lead, they’ll force Sellers to throw behind that struggling line. That’s when the mistakes pile up.

I’ve watched this South Carolina team closely, and it’s tough to watch – the offense sputters, the defense spends too much time on the field, and it snowballs late. Alabama should control this game start to finish.

Final Card Recap: CFB Week 9

• Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 at South Carolina
• South Carolina team total under 16.5
• Ole Miss +5.5 at Oklahoma
• BYU +2.5 at Iowa State
• Cincinnati -3.5 vs Baylor
• Cincinnati/Baylor Over 66.5
• Auburn/Arkansas Over 56.5
• Toledo/Washington State Under 46.5
• Tennessee team total Over 31.5

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.

Week 8 of the NFL season brings plenty of storylines, but for us, it’s all about finding the sharpest angles in the betting market. The Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week segment gave us a chance to dig deep into the matchups, and a few plays stood out across the board — from Baker Mayfield’s redemption arc to Bijan Robinson’s rushing potential and a celebration of National Tight End Day.

Erickson: Betting on Baker and the Buccaneers

Tampa Bay burned plenty of bettors last week, but that’s exactly why we’re buying back in. The Buccaneers at -4 are our favorite side this week against the New Orleans Saints. Baker Mayfield’s MVP talk may have cooled after an ugly outing against Detroit, but that just means there’s value on the table. Historically, Mayfield and the Bucs thrive in bounce-back spots — they’ve covered in seven of their last nine road games and are an impressive 12-4 against the spread following a loss.

We expect a chippy divisional matchup — Baker has no love lost for the Saints — and while we’ll miss the classic Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore showdown, there’s still plenty of firepower to believe in Tampa Bay. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been convincing, and with their 2-10 against the spread record as an underdog, they’re a team to fade. This is the “buy the dip” moment for Baker and the Bucs.

Furman: Tight End Day: Dalton Kincaid to Shine

Every year, National Tight End Day offers a reason to celebrate one of football’s most underappreciated positions — and this week, we’re doing just that with Dalton Kincaid at +210 to score an anytime touchdown. The Bills’ rookie has become more integrated into Josh Allen’s offense each week, and he draws the dream matchup: Carolina, the NFL’s worst defense by DVOA against tight ends.

The Panthers have given up production to every tight end they’ve faced, and with Buffalo likely moving the ball at will, Kincaid should have his chances in the red zone. Expect Allen to look for him early and often as the Bills’ offense gets rolling in a get-right spot. Tight end touchdowns and celebration dances? We’re in.

Pisapia: Bijan Going Over

Few players in football are as electric with the ball in their hands as Bijan Robinson, and he’s facing a Miami Dolphins defense that’s leaking yardage at a historic rate. The Dolphins have allowed 1,115 rushing yards, the most in the NFL — no other team has even cracked 1,000. With that in mind, we’re hammering Bijan’s rushing yards over 88.5, even if it feels like a lofty total.

Add in an anytime touchdown and you’ve got a juicy combo that pushes the payout to +135. The matchup, the talent, and the workload all align for Bijan to break out in a big way against a defense that’s struggled to contain dynamic runners all season.

Upset Alert: Backing the 49ers

For our Upset Special of the Week, we’re backing the San Francisco 49ers at +1.5. This pick goes against the grain — even against our buddy Terrell’s earlier lean — but it’s one we’re confident in. Houston’s defense deserves credit, but their offense remains inconsistent, and we’ll side with the team that boasts the best player on the field: Christian McCaffrey.

With George Kittle getting healthier and the Niners’ defense hungry to rebound, we’re betting that San Francisco doesn’t just cover — they win outright.

The Parlay: Chasing Plus Money

To cap off the week, we’re stringing together a three-leg parlay that captures our favorite plays:

• 49ers +1.5
• Bijan Robinson over 88.5 rushing yards
• Colts team total over 30.5 points

That trio combines for a tasty +556 payout. The Colts’ offense continues to impress, and with Tennessee’s defense reeling, we see another big outing coming.

Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.