We were finally able to pick a winner on a Monday night with Eagles over Packers last week. This time around? Not so easy. Dallas heads into Vegas laying three points against the Raiders, and we’re split. One of us is leaning into the star on the helmet, the other’s hunting for an upset on prime time.

Cowherd: Dallas is Built for This Spot

When I watch the Cowboys, I see structure. I see a team that’s gotten past its early-season wobble and settled into what they are – fast, organized, physical, and decisive. Dak Prescott has quietly strung together one of the cleanest stretches of football in the league, and the offensive line is finally healthy enough to let him breathe.

It’s not always flashy, but Dallas has become the rare team that wins the way veteran teams do: controlling tempo, dominating field position, and forcing turnovers instead of praying for them.

And let’s be honest: the Raiders don’t have an identity right now. The Pete Carroll experiment – and yes, it’s still weird to say “Pete Carroll, Raiders coach” – feels like it’s missing a gear. They’ve got young talent, sure, but it’s all over the map. Jeanty’s shown flashes, Geno’s been up and down, and the defense looks like it’s still stuck in preseason mode.

This is one of those classic spots where good coaching, a top-five quarterback, and a pass rush that gets home make all the difference. Dallas doesn’t need style points here. They just need to be themselves – efficient, aggressive, and mistake-free.

Give me the Cowboys to win and cover. Vegas can hang for a half, but over four quarters, the better roster pulls away.

Middlekauff: The Case for the Raiders – Barely

I get why Colin likes Dallas. Everyone does. Which is exactly why I don’t.

We’ve seen this movie before: a primetime Cowboys game, big buildup, everyone leans in on the favorite, and then suddenly it’s the middle of the third quarter and the underdog is hanging around. I’m not saying the Raiders are better – they’re not – but these Monday night games have a funny way of turning messy.

Maybe it’s the short week for Dallas, maybe it’s the travel, maybe it’s just the league’s parody finally catching up – but I’ll take the points and hope Pete Carroll’s got one trick left. This feels like a “backs-against-the-wall” week for him. They’ve been embarrassed twice in a row, the home crowd will be loud, and if Jeanty can get going, they can make this ugly.

And if there’s one thing Dallas doesn’t love, it’s ugly. They want rhythm. They want structure. Break that up, and suddenly Dak starts forcing throws, Schotty gets conservative, and the Cowboys start settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

So yeah. I’ll take the Raiders. Not because I love them, but because Monday nights can be wild, and wild is usually good for the dog.

Cowboys at Raiders MNF Picks

Cowherd: Cowboys -3
Middlekauff: Raiders +3

Whichever way you lean, buckle up for this one.

We’ll be honest — Monday Night Football has been my (Colin’s) weak spot this year. The Blazin’ Five? Fantastic season. But Mondays? Brutal. I keep taking favorites, and they keep burning me.

This week, we get Green Bay at Lambeau, laying 1.5 points on the spread against Philadelphia, and for once, I’m not touching the home favorite. I like the Eagles, and I like them to win outright.

Colin: Philly’s Found Their Identity

When I watch Philadelphia, I see a team that knows exactly who they are. Coming off the bye, they’re rested, organized, and physical. The last time we saw them, they’d finally found their rhythm — that offensive balance, the defensive swagger, the identity that makes them dangerous in November and December.

Green Bay? I’m not sure what they are right now. They’ve got injuries all over — Tucker Kraft is gone for the year (and I think he’s a Pro Bowl-level tight end). Jayden Reed’s been banged up. And Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur still haven’t figured out a real offensive personality.

Philly’s got answers. Green Bay’s still asking questions. That’s a bad mix when the weather gets cold and the pressure’s on. Give me the Eagles and the points — actually, forget the points. Give me Philly moneyline.

John: The Pressure’s All on Green Bay

I’ve been fading you on a lot of these Monday night games, Colin — but not this one. I’m with you.

If the Eagles come out and jump up early, 14–3 or 14–7, that crowd at Lambeau? They’re going to get restless. You could hear some boos. There’s real pressure building on LaFleur. They keep losing games they’re supposed to win, and when that happens in Green Bay, people notice.

Meanwhile, Philly’s quietly reloaded. They’ve added Jaelan Phillips, brought in a couple corners, tightened up the secondary. They’re not sneaking up on anybody, but this feels like one of those weeks where the focus is sharper than the market thinks.

I like the Eagles, too. This game’s all about who’s confident — and right now, that’s not the Packers.

It’s a Statement Spot

This is one of those “identity” games. One team knows what it is. The other’s trying to figure it out. Philly’s more physical, deeper, and they’ve got the better quarterback and coaching staff right now.

We both like the Eagles to win outright — and if that happens, the conversation in Green Bay next week isn’t going to be about the playoff picture. It’s going to be about pressure. On LaFleur. On Jordan Love.

That’s what Monday night does — it exposes you.

Our Monday Night Pick

It’s nearly a pick’em, and we’re taking the Eagles.

• Eagles +1.5

I’ve said it for years: late-season NFL betting is about urgency, identity, and avoiding the noise. Some teams can sell urgency; a few actually live it. Here are the sides and a total I like this week—and why.

Ravens -4 at Vikings

Lamar against the NFC has been a wagon. When he starts and finishes games, Baltimore is top-three in basically everything that matters—yards, points, explosives. Minnesota’s coming off a strange one against Detroit (blocked kick, short fields, a low-yardage box score that somehow produced four TDs). Fun story, not sustainable. Baltimore’s healthier on defense, Lamar shook off rust fast, and a “4” from Vegas tells you who they think is the better team. I’ll lay the points.

Under 50.5 — DET @ WAS

No Jayden Daniels for Washington, multiple O-line issues for Detroit, and the Lions’ post–Ben Johnson offense has flashed without being consistently explosive. Detroit’s defense has had stretches—Hutchinson healthy helps—and this feels like a game where both teams’ limitations cap possessions and points. I like the under quite a bit.

Steelers +3 at Chargers

Classic matchup problem: TJ Watt and that front versus a Chargers team missing tackles and juggling protection. It’ll be a Steelers crowd in L.A. (it always is), the silent count shows up, and one strip-sack can flip the script. I’ll happily take the field goal.

Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks

Divisional dogs travel. Seattle looked pristine last week; Arizona punched above its weight against Dallas earlier—and stylistically, they tend to hang around. This stays within a score late far more often than not.

Dolphins +9.5 at Bills

I’ve been an “underdogs with good quarterbacks” guy my whole career. This week, the board isn’t generous—but this is the best dog. Buffalo’s coming off a peak emotional win; Miami tends to bounce, run the ball, and muddy things enough to cover the spread.

Eagles at Packers

Green Bay’s still searching for an identity. Philly is off a bye, O-line trending up, Hurts just played his best game two weeks before the break, and I don’t fully trust Jordan Love in high-leverage spots. The Lambeau mystique is real; the Eagles’ trench edge is more real. I like the Eagles moneyline.

The Week 10 Card

• Ravens -4
• Under 50.5 (WAS–DET)
• Steelers +3
• Cardinals +6.5 (prefer +7)
• Dolphins +9.5
• Eagles

When it comes to Monday Night Football, everyone’s got an opinion — and so do we. This week’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals isn’t just another primetime game; it’s a test of identity, confidence, and consistency.

Colin Cowherd: The Cowboys Are Built to Dominate at Home

I’ve always believed there’s something to be said about the teams that carry a real identity — a sense of who they are. Dallas is one of those teams. You can knock the Cowboys all you want for being flashy or overly hyped, but at home, Dak Prescott becomes a different quarterback. The numbers don’t lie — his splits are dramatic. He’s calm, confident, and efficient when the lights are on at AT&T Stadium.

And this year, credit where it’s due — Brian Schottenheimer’s play-calling has been sharp. The Cowboys have done an excellent job balancing their offensive weapons. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb stretch the field, forcing safeties to stay honest. That opens up running lanes, and when Dallas has balance, they’re dangerous. Arizona, on the other hand, feels like a franchise still in search of its reflection in the mirror. They’re in a rebuild, trying to rediscover who they are.

That’s why I’m taking the Cowboys to win — and to cover the spread. I see them controlling the tempo, forcing Arizona into catch-up mode. Dallas by a touchdown feels about right.

John Middlekauff: Don’t Sleep on the Cardinals’ Grit

I get where Colin’s coming from — Dallas at home is a safe play. But there’s something about this Arizona team that makes me pause before handing the game to the Cowboys so easily. Look, Jacoby Brissett isn’t a star, but he’s steady. The guy almost took down the Colts not long ago, and when he’s in rhythm, the offense moves.

There’s also the Kyler Murray factor — he’s been benched, and you don’t do that unless you’re trying to reset the culture. Sometimes, that shake-up brings out a tougher edge in the locker room. Arizona might not win, but covering that spread? That’s a bet I’ll take.

Dallas can win this game, sure. But underdogs — they play these primetime games with something to prove. I think the Cardinals hang around.

The Takeaway

Monday Night in the NFL often comes down to confidence versus hunger. Dallas knows who it is — at least at home — while Arizona is still figuring it out. But that journey, that fight for identity, can make a team dangerous.

One thing’s certain: between Prescott’s comfort under the bright lights and Brissett’s chip-on-the-shoulder resilience, this matchup has edge.

If you’ve followed the NFL long enough, you know that by late October, the league starts to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Sunday’s slate reminded us of a simple truth: the bad teams now know they’re bad. There’s no more illusion, no more false hope — just the grim reality of rosters that can’t protect quarterbacks or keep up with the elite.

And sitting comfortably atop that elite tier is, once again, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City’s Edge Over the Field

When you line up the Chiefs against the rest of the NFL, it’s hard not to see a full touchdown’s worth of separation between them and whoever’s next. Maybe Philadelphia’s roster keeps things competitive — they’re deep, physical, and well-coached — but Kansas City’s combination of Mahomes, Reid, and a disciplined, opportunistic defense continues to be the difference-maker.

This week, the Chiefs enter Monday Night Football as an 11.5-point favorite over Washington, and for good reason. Normally, we shy away from big spreads. The NFL has a way of humbling even the best teams when you get north of a touchdown. But the more you watch this Chiefs group, the more it feels like they’ve rediscovered that second gear — the one that turns comfortable wins into blowouts.

Washington’s Regression to the Mean

Let’s be honest: Washington’s 2024 season was a pleasant surprise. They contended in the NFC East and were one win from the Super Bowl. They played above their weight class, squeezed everything out of that defense, and showed flashes of growth. But 2025 looks like a different story.

And now, they draw Kansas City — a team that doesn’t forgive mistakes. With Marcus Mariota running the show in place of Jayden Daniels, you can practically pencil in a couple of turnovers. That’s not a knock on Mariota; it’s just reality. Against this defense, one misread or a split-second hesitation turns into six points the other way.

No Reason to Overthink It

As much as we’d like to debate, sometimes the pick is obvious. The Chiefs are rolling, Washington’s fading, and the gap between the two might be wider than the line suggests.

So while we’ve both taken our share of favorites this season, this one feels different. It’s not about betting the number — it’s about recognizing greatness when it’s right in front of you.

• Prediction: Kansas City wins comfortably. The machine keeps humming, and the rest of the league keeps chasing.

One of the things I love about doing this show with John Middlekauff is that we see the football differently — and we’re both convinced we’re right. That’s good radio. This week, we got into it over Washington versus Chicago on Monday night. I see a well-coached, ascending Commanders team ready to take care of business at home. John sees a Bears team that used the bye week to regroup, simplify, and maybe steal one on the road.

Colin Cowherd: I’m Riding with Washington

I went 4–0 in my Blazing Five last week, and I feel good about keeping the momentum going — because I really like Washington as a -4.5 point favorite against Chicago.

Here’s why: Chicago hasn’t been a good road team for years. That’s not an opinion; it’s a trend. If you watched Washington’s second half against the Chargers, Jaden Daniels looked like the guy we saw last year — decisive, athletic, confident.

Right now, Washington is simply the better operation. They’re organized, they’re balanced, and they’re playing at home in what’s going to be a wild, loud environment.

Now, I get it — Chicago’s coming off a bye week. But that kind of “extra time” only helps for your first series or two. The Bears are actually good on script. The problem is what happens when they get off script. You can only draw up so many plays on a whiteboard before you’ve got to improvise, and that’s where young quarterbacks — and young coaching staffs — start to struggle.

And make no mistake: going on the road, in a loud stadium, against a team that’s starting to click — that matters. This isn’t baseball. You can’t tune out noise and momentum in the NFL.

So yeah, I’ll take Washington to win and cover the spread. They’ve got the more mature quarterback play, the steadier sideline, and home-field edge.

John Middlekauff: I’ll Take the Bears and the Points

Colin’s making good points, but I’m going the other way. I’ll take the underdog Bears and the points, and here’s why.

When you’ve got a young quarterback and a first-time head coach, that bye week can be a gift. You get to take a deep breath, step back, and throw out what’s not working. That’s the kind of reset good coaching staffs live for.

Look at what guys like Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay do after a bye — they simplify. They toss out the junk plays, trim down the call sheet, and focus on what their team can execute cleanly. That’s the difference between chaos and control.

If we really believe Ben Johnson is that next “offensive genius” — the 13 million coach — then this is his moment to show it. The Bears have been sloppy: penalties, mental errors, self-inflicted stuff. The bye gives you time to clean all that up.

And don’t underestimate the emotional side of this. They lost last year on the Hail Mary — one of the ugliest endings you’ll ever see, and I’m sure they’ve been thinking about that over the last two weeks as they prepare for this game. Those players remember. That kind of embarrassment can refocus a team.

So I’ll take the Bears to cover. I think they come out sharper, cleaner, and more disciplined. They might not win outright on the moneyline, but I think they’ll make Washington earn every inch.

Two Voices, One Game

• Colin Cowherd: Washington’s got the better infrastructure — quarterback, coaching, environment.
• John Middlekauff: Chicago’s got the reset, the motivation, and a week’s worth of cleanup time.

That’s what makes this matchup fun — two teams trying to prove they’re turning a corner, and two guys (us) who can’t agree on which one actually will.

For the last game of NFL Week 5 the Kansas City Chiefs head into Monday Night Football as 3.5-point favorites at Jacksonville, and frankly, that number feels light. The Jaguars have one of the weakest home-field advantages in the league, and while Trevor Lawrence remains a talented quarterback, he’s also reliably good for one mistake that changes the game. It’s not that we distrust Jacksonville entirely — it’s that we trust Kansas City more when it matters.

The Chiefs’ win over Baltimore looked impressive at first glance, but context matters. Baltimore just got blown out at home by Houston, so we’re not exactly crowning Kansas City for that one. Still, the takeaway wasn’t about who they beat — it was how they’re evolving. Xavier Worthy has quietly unlocked the middle of the field for Patrick Mahomes, forcing defenses to respect speed and spacing again. Kansas City may still lack a true run game, but Mahomes and Andy Reid can manufacture ball control through precision passing. That keeps them dangerous even when they’re trying to bleed clock late.

An uneven story in Jacksonville

Jacksonville, on the other hand, feels stuck. Defensively, they’re solid — physical, disciplined, well-coached. But offensively, it’s the same uneven story. Lawrence flashes talent but rarely dominance. We wanted to believe two years ago, but the trajectory hasn’t matched the hype. Brian Thomas Jr. is having a weird year, he’s banged up, Travis Hunter has been MIA. Against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that thrives on pressure and disguise, that’s a bad recipe.

Finding motivation for KC

At this point, Kansas City almost feels like the Kevin Durant-era Warriors — a dynasty that needs fresh motivation to care about the regular season. A few early stumbles seem to have woken them up. The rest of the AFC? The Chargers are injured, the Broncos are searching for an identity, the Ravens are melting down, and the Bills have been here and beaten before. The Chiefs know this is still their conference to lose.

This one has the makings of a grind-it-out, 20–10 kind of game — the kind Kansas City wins (and covers the spread) because they’ve been there before. Expect a sluggish pace, a few Mahomes flashes, and a Jacksonville team that once again can’t quite measure up.

Pick: Chiefs by a touchdown.

Referenced odds provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and are subject to change.